Viewing 6 posts - 1 through 6 (of 6 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • Zed
    Participant
    Offline
    Thread Starter
    • Professional
    #1
    Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s announcement on the release and return of Indian Air Force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman to India will now be used by the BJP as a proof that the muscular policy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and NSA Ajit Doval worked. But in reality, many questions will linger over the whole Balakot operationthat was launched in response to the horrific Pulwama attack.

    Imran Khan said the release of the pilot was a ‘peace gesture’ and urged India to start dialogue. But it is unlikely that any dialogue between India and Pakistan can begin before the upcoming Lok Sabha election. Even if the BJP rightly claims that new redlines vis-à-vis Pakistani sponsorship of terror have been laid, the new government in India post-May will have to deal with a shrewd Imran Khan, who has shown the same versatility in office that he showed on the cricket field.

    Imran Khan saw an inflexion point and seized it. After Pulwama, India may have established the new pre-emptive strikedoctrine to inflict punishment on terror abettors deep in Pakistan, which Pakistan’s ISI will ingest. But the ISI may simply embed the jihadi assets in the military facilities for their protection and not decapitate them. But the Indian aggressive policy of Ajit Doval, or Dovalisation of the Kashmir policy – using force sans political outreach and carrying out “surgical strikes” to counter Pakistani terror – have run their course in the current term of the Modi government.

    Since the Uri attack in 2016, India-Pakistan relations have been in deep freeze. But the car-bomb attack on the CRPF convoy at Pulwama, killing 40 servicemen, for which Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) instantly took credit, landed the Modi government in a difficult situation. The BJP has been trying to politically exploit the emotive terror issue since the 2016 attack on a military camp at Uri. They gleefully awaited its Bollywood version called Uri, and went about ratcheting up jingoistic fervour after its release. Even Raksha Mantri Nirmala Sitharaman performed the fist-clenching act of soldierly “Josh” from the film.

    Also read: Pakistan releasing Abhinandan for peace but Imran Khan isn’t optimistic about Modi

    The Pulwama attack pushed this narrative and inflamed already roused public emotion, which now sought instant retribution. The Modi government faced a dilemma confronted by prime ministers since the 2001 attack on Indian Parliament. How do you punish a state clandestinely supporting non-state actors indulging in terrorism when it possesses nuclear weapons?

    On 26 February, Modi government broke that vicious cycle of blackmail by aerial attackson two targets across the Line of Control (LOC) and a major JeM training facility, within Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, at Balakot.

    Foreign secretary’s briefing emphasised the following points: India had not targeted Pakistan but made a “non-military, pre-emptive” strike against non-state actors; India had credible information that those under training were planning to attack India; and India had no desire to escalate beyond this.

    Naturally, public euphoria was widespread. Modi, subtly, and his party president Amit Shah, blatantly, used it in their election speeches. Next morning, Pakistan’s retaliatory air intrusion caused little damage on the ground but a MiG-21 chasing Pakistani aircraft was shot down and the pilot was captured by Pakistan. India claimed it shot down a Pakistani F-16, which Pakistan denied.

    But with jingoism rampant, the script of invincibility of both militaries was punctured. And Imran Khan capitalised on that – portraying a picture of dignified moderation and readiness to settle differences through talks. He took everyone by surprise when on the floor of Pakistan’s national assembly, he promised the unilateral repatriation of Abhinandan Varthaman Friday.

    US President Donald Trump had hinted that some good news was imminent, but most analysts read it as excessive optimism. But now it means that the US was in the loop and most probably instrumental in starting the process of de-escalation between the nuclear weapon-possessing neighbours. Imran Khan’s gesture of goodwill will lower the tension and lead to a gradual stepping back from the edge. Hawks in Indian establishment and the BJP will be stranded by Imran Khan’s diplomatic reverse swing.

    Also read: India now awaits ‘third round’ of war-fighting and escalation before the guns cool down

    A two-step approach is anyway underway: build public pressure via a joint US-UK-France resolution in the UN Security Council to list Masood Azhar as an international terrorist, and an outreach to Pakistan to dismantle JeM terror machine. Normally, China would veto the first, despite external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj’s attendance at the Russia-India-China (RIC) ministerial meet. But the US choreography may include putting pressure on China to not play the spoiler. The second step has been unsuccessfully tried by the US on previous occasions. But the Indian military pressure and the looming financial threat of the Financial Action Task Force black-listing Pakistan may help.

    Undoubtedly, the Saudi-Emirati alliance is also guiding Pakistan towards reducing tension with India. But it puts Indian government in a bind because it stymies any further military operation against Pakistan, which would seem like an unnecessary military adventure.

    After having flexed its military muscles as a show of Modi’s assertive leadership, India will now have to step back and await diplomatic success in getting Pakistan to abandon its jihad dependence.

    K.C. Singh is a former diplomat and strategic affairs expert.

    https://theprint.in/opinion/imran-khans-diplomatic-reverse-swing-has-stumped-indian-hawks-and-bjp/199806/

    • This topic was modified 54 years, 3 months ago by .
    GeoG
    Participant
    Offline
    • Expert
    #2
    But with jingoism rampant, the script of invincibility of both militaries was punctured. 

    And Imran Khan capitalised on that

    :lol: :lol:   :lol:   :lol:  

    Gongloo, did you read the article?? No, you just read the title and posted

    this sentence alone clean bolds the whole article

    An Army Stooge is not even allowed to enter the ground let alone given an opportunity of bowling.

    Zed
    Participant
    Offline
    Thread Starter
    • Professional
    #3
    Babloo,

    Do you understand what you quoted? Read it again slowly.

    bluesheep
    Participant
    Offline
    • Advanced
    #4
    Babloo, Do you understand what you quoted? Read it again slowly.

    Release of this Indian pilot will bring something to Pakistan? I say absolute nothing, zero, Nada! if you based your diplomacy on righteousness or truth then in the end you will always loose. They have already started to propagate the Pakistan release him under international pressure!! so again what benefit you have after releasing this pilot ?

    • This reply was modified 54 years, 3 months ago by .
    Zed
    Participant
    Offline
    Thread Starter
    • Professional
    #5

    Release of this Indian pilot will bring something to Pakistan? I say absolute nothing, zero, Nada! if you based your diplomacy on righteousness or truth then in the end you will always loose. They have already started to propagate the Pakistan release him under international pressure!! so again what benefit you have after releasing this pilot ?

    If you are talking real politik, than perhaps not a lot was gained interms of tangible gains. But the perception of Pakistan being the most dangerous and untrustworthy country is definitely improved. It’s a gesture more to the international community and at the diplomatic front that India is the aggressor in this case.

    At the same time what were we to gain from keeping him?

    bluesheep
    Participant
    Offline
    • Advanced
    #6
    If you are talking real politik, than perhaps not a lot was gained interms of tangible gains. But the perception of Pakistan being the most dangerous and untrustworthy country is definitely improved. It’s a gesture more to the international community and at the diplomatic front that India is the aggressor in this case. At the same time what were we to gain from keeping him?

    My friend, what is the impression of Pakistan in the world which you see on news channels or media outlets ? There is a huge assault on Pakistani image in the world and India is assaulting Pakistanis brutally and Pakistani “Gestures of peace” are nothing, its treated as a sign of weakness and here is the real problem, there is absolutely zero efforts from Pakistan to combat this propaganda war against it and until and unless you start a aggressive propaganda war of your own, you will always considered a failed stat supporting terrorism in the world.

Viewing 6 posts - 1 through 6 (of 6 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

×
arrow_upward DanishGardi