I want to do some analysis why PTI is currently a dominant force in KPK. KPK politics dynamics are different than Punjab as every party has its presence in its own region and it is very weak in other areas.
Let me start with a highly populated central region of KPK which includes districts of Peshawar, Kohat, Mardan, Nowshehra and Swabi. PTI directly compete in this area with ANP another strong hold of this area. Last elections PTI almost swept this area but PTI being incumbent this time, it is likely to give some space back to ANP. Charsadda is also in this region but it is now a strong hold of Aftab Sherpao’s Party which is likely to remain dominant again by them (Just one district).
When we move toward South districts of Karak, Bannu, Lakki Marwat and D.I.Khan; compettion here is between PTI and Molana Fazal Ul Rehman’s JUI (F). Last elections in total seats were shared by both and I see similar scenario in next elections as well. PTI will lose more ground if MMA is formed where JUI(F) & Jamat Islami are together.
Northeast Region (Hazara Division):
Hazara historically been a strong hold of PML(N); Maryam Nawaz Husband belong to Mansehra district of this region. PTI was in direct competition with PML(N) in last election although PML(N) was still dominant as in Punjab but PTI got seats here and there. Remember this is only area in KPK which is language and culture wise close to Punjab. Puktoon taunt them by saying Punjabis. You can consider this region as little Punjab in KPK. JUI (F) also have presence in upper district of Mansehra, Batgram and Kohistan. I think we are not going to see much change in next election as still PML(N) is strong here but PTI & JUI (F) presence as well.
North Region (Malakand and Swat Region);
This region’s dominance force is Jamat Islami and it has a competition with again PTI mostly but in Swat and Shangla PML(N) have a brief entry due to Amir Muqam. This region dominated in 2013 as always was JI but PTI got seats here and there with little presence of PML(N). I think this is a battleground which may change if MMA is not formed. In case of MMA it will again be dominated by JI+JUI(F). In case JI runs alone there will be a three way fight between PTI, PML(N) and JI.
Answer why PTI is popular in KPK
(1) PTI compete for every other party in almost all regions
(2) Imran Khan’s Khan factor as Puktoons are very nationalist
(3) PTI performed better than PPP+ANP alliance but not as great which can set an example for rest of Pakistan
(4) Change factor worked well in 2013 and still, PTI is a young party there
(3) Religious votes are intact with PTI (You know Taliban Khan LOL)
(4) Little Punjab (Hazara) following the same trend as Punjab
(5) There is no new party left for any more change, remember PML(N) is considered a Punjabi Party in Pukhtoon Areas
My Predictions ranking for 2018 Elections
(2) MMA (JUI plus JI)
(3) Competition between PML(N) and ANP to get third place in ranking
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