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10 Jun, 2017
Re: پاکستانی سیاست کی نئی صورتحال
Awan bhai I am baffled how do you come up with all this analysis? Establishment trust Zardari more than Imran? Did Imran spend 11 years in Jail? Did Imran run to Dubai as PM hiding from establishment? Establishment won’t bet on losing horse again? What incentive establishment has to bet on popular politician? They may try to find a way to work with one but why will they back one. If Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz back Shahbaz and Humza then PMLN can win and these two father & son can workout a deal with establishment and win elections. Do you think public is stupid? If they support Sharifs for their anti establishment stance they won’t know Sharifs are playing good cop and bad cop? There are no signs establishment is looking for Imran’s alternatives or want to replace him. Shame on us if we are backing whoever is next in line ready to be establishment’s lapdog. Shahbaz and Humza have no roots in masses and have no political future. As far as PTI’s popularity in Punjab is concerned let’s look at Daska polls tonight. My prediction is PTI will win.
Well Zardari is their trusted man for more than probably three decades. Zardari’s services started from Benazir government’s era, continued during in his own government for 5 years and continue so far as well. Khan’s services in government start about 2.5 years ago and we have to look how it goes onward from here. Establishment never takes a risk to bring a party again due to two factors:
(1) Over the 5 years of government parties in Pakistan typically lose their vote bank
(2) Establishment don’t want a party that strong to become a danger for them
PML(Q) in 2008 a good example when they lost popularity and establishment was not even interested in bringing back and Nawaz example is now good for them to never let a party become strong
I think PML(N) don’t need a visible deal the way they have done with Khan. Even if establishment stays neutral; PML(N) in general elections can win easily. PML(N) will never accept any deal and establishment will not do such steps to show it a deal. In 2013 deal was similar when Shahbaz & Chaudari Nisar silently ensured establishment that we want to work with you. No one even Khan/Zardari or any other political opponent raised any question that PML(N) was backed by army at that time. I am looking 2023 election a repeat of 2013 elections except that Nawaz will not be a PM and will not come to Pakistan before elections. This is my political analysis and forget about backing to any party for now.
In the end, no one can politically survive to take government by going all out against army therefore the best way out is to ensure that we want to work with you. There will be a time down the road when democracy will be that much strong that a government can work without influence of army in Pakistan.